QB Model v1.0

QB-only valuation model using PPA, usage metrics, and SP+ team rating.

What was included

QB-only valuations for FBS starters (2024 season)
Formula: team_budget × QB_positional_share × (avg_ppa_pass / league_avg_ppa_pass) × usage_pass_adjustment
$75K floor, $15M ceiling
Minimum 15% pass usage rate to qualify
Option offense exclusions: Air Force, Navy, Army, Georgia Tech
16 programs with specific budget estimates; all others at $5M default
72% of predictions within 25% of reported 2024 deals

Backtest Results

v1.0 against 2024 reported deals. 72% within 25% — the notable miss was Shedeur Sanders, whose social brand premium the raw PPA model couldn't capture.

Within 20%

20–40% off

40%+ off

Perfect prediction

Known gaps at publication

No opponent adjustment — raw PPA rewarded QBs on weak schedules
SP+ captured in data pipeline but not in formula
Social media premium not modeled (the "Shedeur Sanders problem")
Only 16 programs had specific budget estimates — G5 and mid-tier P4 undervalued
RB, WR, TE positions out of scope

What changed in v1.1

v1.1 added guardrails (positive PPA filter, FCS exclusion), option offense exclusions, and a valuation floor/ceiling. See the v1.1 archive or the current model.